20 Déc Sheryl Purdy Interviewed on CBC Radio
Kyle Bakx, CBC Radio: Good morning, Canada’s stock market has been pretty positive in the last 12 months. Still, much has been made of a possible global recession in 2020. To make sense of the situation, we speak with Sheryl Purdy, Vice President and Investment Advisor at Leede Jones Gable. Good morning Sheryl.
Sheryl Purdy: Good morning!
CBC Radio: The TSX climbed about 20% in 2019 and hit an all-time high. Would you consider that a good year for the stock market?
Sheryl Purdy: Well, to answer that question, I think depends on a few things: the first, is: how much cash was available in clients’ accounts on January 2, 2019? The next, is: did they take their broker’s advice and buy in January 2019? Perhaps an Index Fund or an ETF? If so, then their portfolio, from that time, if it is Canadian-weighted, would be up approximately + 19%, and if it is USA-weighted would be up + 20%. So, the result would be …. continue to do the dance of joy, and well done!
CBC Radio: So, looking back in 2019, were there any sectors, in particular, that really surprised you?
Sheryl Purdy: No, actually, not really – if anything, I am surprised at the presumption and proposed investment thesis that oil and gas is no longer needed.
CBC Radio: Ok, there is some talk about a global recession in 2020 , how does that change investment behavior?
Sheryl Purdy: I do not like rising debt levels both on a consumer level, and with the Federal Liberals in Ottawa. I do not like the ISM Manufacturing numbers in the USA having 3 consecutive readings under 50 – this is giving a tap on the shoulder to investors that the USA economy is slowing. And, I do not like the latest job loss numbers in Canada released this month. So, I remain cautious for my client portfolios.
CBC Radio: And what else are you going to be watching for in 2020?
Sheryl Purdy: There is a long list here:
* will President Trump be impeached? Will the Senate convict him and remove him from office? If so, who will replace him?
* who will be the USA Democratic candidate? This is a really big question mark there and makes a big difference.
* will Justin Trudeau’s Federal Liberal Party stay in power with their minority government?
* what happened in the UK with Brexit? Who was voted in on Dec. 15th?
* what happens with OPEC – can they keep the proposed cuts in line and the price of oil keeps stable?
* will the Trans Mountain Pipeline be built?
* will the central banks in Canada and USA keep on hold? Or…drop will they drop their core lending rates?
* most of the first half of 2020 is where the investment action will be meaningful (basically, until we see who will be the President of the United States on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020) – the reason why, is that it is unlikely that material decisions will be made by corporations until this vote is known.
* will there be a USA/China trade deal? More tariffs? Big question mark there. This is essentially this a drama that is ongoing.
So, it certainly won’t be boring!
CBC Radio: Certainly not, that’s a long list, all sorts of interesting things to keep an eye on in the next 12 months. Sheryl Purdy is a Vice President and Investment Advisor at Leede Jones Gable. For CBC Radio, I’m Kyle Bakx